NorESM2 SSPs#

Detailed information about the simulations can be found by clicking on case names in the table of contents or at the bottom of this page

Future scenarios#

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways#

SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways serve as basis for new emissions and socio-economic scenarios for future climate projections used in CMIP6:

  • SSP1: Sustainability – Taking the Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)

  • SSP2: Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)

  • SSP3: Regional Rivalry – A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)

  • SSP4: Inequality – A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)

  • SSP5 Fossil-fueled Development – Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)

See Riahi 2017 for a more detailed description (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681) and BC O’Neill 2016 (https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/3461/2016/gmd-9-3461-2016.pdf)

Representative Concentration Pathways#

RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways are future projections of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and subsequent radiative forcing. The number after RCP represent the radiative forcing by year 2100.

  • RCP2.6: radiative forcing peaks at ~3W/m2 before year 2100 and then declines

  • RCP4.5: radiative forcing stabilises at approximately 4.5 W/m2 after year 2100

  • RCP7.0: radiative forcing stabilises at approximately 7.0 W/m2 after year 2100

  • RCP8.5: radiative forcing reaches greater than 8.5W/m2 by year 2100

The forcing used in CMIP6 for future projections are combinations of SSPs and RCPs.

For a brief description, also see https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change

For an overview and description of the various CMIP6 experiments, please see: https://search.es-doc.org/

SSP-based RCP scenarios:#

  • SSP1-2.6: SSP-based RCP scenario with low radiative forcing by the end of the century. Following approximately RCP2.6 global forcing pathway with SSP1 socioeconomic conditions. Radiative forcing reaches a level of 2.6 W/m2 in 2100. Concentration-driven. The scenario represents the low end of the range of plausible future pathways. The scenario depicts the “best case” future from the sustainability perspective.

  • SSP2-4.5: SSP-based RCP scenario with medium radiative forcing by the end of the century. Following approximately RCP4.5 global forcing pathway with SSP2 socioeconomic conditions. Radiative forcing reaches a level of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100. Concentration-driven. The scenario represents the medium part of the range of plausible future pathways.

  • SSP3-7.0: Baseline scenario with a medium to high radiative forcing by the end of century. Following approximately RCP7.0 global forcing pathway with SSP3 socioeconomic conditions. Radiative forcing reaches a level of 7.0 W/m2 in 2100. Concentration-driven. The scenario represents the medium to high end of plausible future pathways. SSP3-7.0 fills a gap in the CMIP5 forcing pathways that is particularly important because it represents a forcing level common to several (unmitigated) SSP baselines.

  • SSP5-8.5: SSP-based RCP scenario with high radiative forcing by the end of century. Following approximately RCP8.5 global forcing pathway with SSP5 socioeconomic conditions. Concentration-driven. The scenario represents the high end of plausible future pathways. SSP5 is the only SSP with emissions high enough to produce the 8.5 W/m2 level of forcing in 2100.

A quick overview#

NorESM2-MM future scenario experiments#

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP126frc2_f09_tn14_20191105

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_f09_tn14_20191105

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_02_f09_tn14_20200629

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_03_f09_tn14_20200630

2015 - 2020

NSSP370frc2_f09_tn14_20191105

2015 - 2100

NSSP585frc2_f09_tn14_20191105

2015 - 2100

NSSP585frc2_f09_tn14_20200919

2015 - 2100

Please note that the two SSP585 cases are bit-identical but with different output. These should not be treated as 2 ensemble members.

NorESM2-LM future scenario experiments#

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP126frc2_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_02_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2100

NSSP245frc2_03_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2100

NSSP370frc2_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2100

NSSP370frc2_02_f19_tn14_20191118

2015 - 2100

NSSP370frc2_03_f19_tn14_20191118

2015 - 2100

NSSP585frc2_f19_tn14_20191014

2015 - 2059

NorESM2-LM SSP2-4.5, aerosol and oxidants only#

From CMIP6 es-doc: An extension of at least one of the hist-aer (histAER) simulations to the year 2100 following SSP2-4.5 aerosol concentrations. Forced with aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions only (sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, ammonia, NOx and VOCs).

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP245frc2aeroxidonly_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NSSP245frc2aeroxidonly_02_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NSSP245frc2aeroxidonly_03_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NorESM2-LM SSP2-4.5, natural-only#

From CMIP6 es-doc: An extension of at least one of the hist-nat (histNAT) simulations to the year 2100 following SSP2-45 solar and volcanic forcing. The future solar forcing data recommended for CMIP6 has a downward trend (Matthes et al., 2016).

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP245frc2natonly_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NSSP245frc2natonly_02_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NSSP245frc2natonly_03_f19_tn14_20191015

2015 - 2020

NorESM2-LM, scenario SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF both for GHGs and aerosol emissions.#

lowNTCF = reduced Near Term Climate Forcer (NTCF) emissions.

From CMIP6 es-doc: SSP-based RCP scenario following approximately RCP7.0 global forcing pathway but with reduced Near Term Climate Forcer (NTCF) emissions. SSP3 socioeconomic conditions.

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP370LOWNTCFfrc2_f19_tn14_20191118

2015 - 2100

NSSP370LOWNTCFfrc2_02_f19_tn14_20191118

2015 - 2100

NSSP370LOWNTCFfrc2_03_f19_tn14_20191118

2015 - 2100

NorESM2-LM SSP3-7.0, with SSP3-7.0 GHG and low NTCF emissions#

These scenarios have greenhouse gas concentrations from SSP3-7.0 (therefore REFGHG in name), but aerosol emissions from SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (see description above).

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP370REFGHGLOWNTCFfrc2_f19_tn14_20191220

2015 - 2059

NSSP370REFGHGLOWNTCFfrc2_02_f19_tn14_20191220

2015 - 2059

NSSP370REFGHGLOWNTCFfrc2_03_f19_tn14_20191220

2015 - 2059

NorESM2-LM SSP5-8.5, emission-driven#

From CMIP6 es-doc: Emission driven future scenario (SSP-based RCP SSP5-8.5) up to 2100. Starting conditions taken from emissions-driven Historical simulation. For analysis of impact of carbon cycle feedbacks on climate projections over the 21st century, and for assessment of cumulative emissions compatible with climate targets.

Case name

Simulation time (y)

NSSP585_f19_tn14_20191223esm

2015 - 2100

Time series of NorESM2-LM Scenario experiments#

NSSP NorESM2-LM SSP simulations
Left column (from top to bottom): Globally and annually averaged Surface (2m) air temperature, global and volume averaged ocean temperature, Sea surface temperature (SST).
Right column (from top to bottom): Globally and annually averaged Net radiation @ top of model, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) @ 26.5N. The figure shows annual average (dots) and 5-year moving average (solid line).

NSSP_emis NorESM2-LM SSP simulations
Left column (from top to bottom): Globally and annually sum of Sea salt surface emissions, DMS (dimethylsulfide) surface emissions, POM (primary organic matter) surface emissions.
Right column (from top to bottom): Globally and annually averaged shortwave cloud forcing and longwave cloud forcing.
The figure shows annual average (dots) and 5-year moving average (solid line).